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Seasonality, cycles & structural change

Read the calendar. Understand the mechanism. Keep the future open.
Explore metals, gas, agriculture, economic calendars and completed US election cycles. Work with original data charts, then examine demographic transitions and changing monetary systems through evidence, institutions and practical research.

50 lessons & exercises32 chapters16 workbook exercises33 figures · 60 sources

3 min · Seasonality · 1. Calendars & evidence

What repeats, and on which clock?

Distinguish annual seasonality, irregular cycles, trends and structural transitions before interpreting a pattern.

3 min · Seasonality · 1. Calendars & evidence

Read the contract behind a seasonal chart

Define observations, cohorts, baseline, weighting, missingness and benchmark breaks; monthly averages remain monthly averages.

3 min · Seasonality · 1. Calendars & evidence

Mean, dispersion and the years hidden underneath

Compare the mean, median, positive counts and between-year dispersion without turning an interval into a guarantee.

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